On the eMarketer ‘By the Numbers’ podcast this week they were making predictions for Media in 2030; and whilst they avoided trying to predict which ID will win out (who can blame them?!) they did make some interesting forecasts.  Some of these included:

• 1bn more people in the world – with India surpassing China and Nigeria surpassing the US.
• 1bn people aged over 65+ as people live longer
• 75% of our media time will be spent online by 2030 vs 61% this year.

Most pertinent to the digital ad world was the predictions on the triopoly – with the 3 dominant ad players – Google, Facebook and Amazon – growing to 71% of US digital ad spend by 2030.  EMarketer forecasts Google’s share of US digital ad spend will fall from 29% (2021) to 27% by 2030; Facebook’s will grow from 25% to 28%; and Amazon – who this week announced their own identifier – growing at the fastest pace from 11% to 16%.

Amazon announces own ID

First reported in Digiday, Amazon plans to launch its own identifier to allow advertisers (via the Amazon DSP) and publishers (via APS – Amazon Publisher Services) to track and measure activities within its ecosystem.  The move would represent further fragmentation of internet measurement systems but one that could give them a significant edge in attracting digital ads following the deprecation of 3rd party cookies.

For publishers the move could help create high value inventory through Amazon’s suite for publishers – Amazon Publisher Services – should Amazon make this ID available to use on inventory outside of its walled garden.  Reports suggest the ID will play more like an publisher provided ID (or PPID) that is created from anonymised 1st party data such as from a logged-in user or customer profile that relates to a single identified user, as opposed to a universal ID like UID2.0.

Promoting the value exchange

Privacy group – Noyd – launched cookie banner complaints this week taking aim at publishers that make it hard to opt-out of tracking cookies.  It further underlines the importance of clear consent mechanisms, and whilst using a CMPs – such as OneTrust – can help maintain a compliant position, there’s more we can do to ensure we get value beyond compliance.  The move from Noyd highlights a need for better communications and education into the value exchange to allow consumers to make an informed decision, where they know what they’re accepting or rejecting, to drive consumer trust.

Archant’s Ryan Cousins – Product & Platform Director – shared some best practices that they have used to drive acceptance & trust in the use of consent in a recent discussion with OneTrust and Carbon.

Back in April, the IAB published findings that 75% of Europeans would choose an ad-supported internet rather than pay for content, but the key is respecting that choice.  Consumers value being able to choose between the experiences they would like to pay for and those that they can experience for free as a result of advertising – we have to give them all the information and options to make up their own minds.

1st party programmatic evolution?

Research from Beeler Tech, CoLab Media and FatTail indicates an expected increase in demand & spending on premium programmatic which includes programmatic guaranteed, private marketplace deals (PMPs) and preferred deals.  With the deprecation of 3rd party cookies and the parallel rise in use of 1st party data publishers have the chance to take back control of their reader relationships.

“It’s no surprise the research shows a shift to quality in programmatic. Top brands want to transact with top publishers through programmatic pipes.”

Beeler.Tech CEO Rob Beeler

Moving towards 1st party fuelled premium programmatic creates more high value inventory with the scale and operational benefits of RTB-based open auctions, with a level of detail and control often associated with direct deals.  Carbon’s partnership with SmartRTB aims to help publishers with just that – combining real-time revenue reporting and machine-driven audience discovery with premium demand dynamic ad units within an RTB environment.

Other interesting reads & watches

• Australia’s News Media Bargaining code could pave the way for similar measures globally, where Facebook and Google – and other digital platforms – have to pay for the right to use news publishers’ content or face tough penalties.
• An interesting video podcast from Exchangewire – The state of universal identifiers – which covers a range of topics from a multi-ID world, the need for publishers and buyers to adopt & test to learn what works for them, and the need to work with ID-agnostic partners for quality and scale.
• In one of the latest media briefings from Digiday they look into some early use cases of FLoC including improved content recommendations and detecting cohort correlations for ad targeting; and limitations at this stage including the lack of scaled testing.

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